The widespread adoption of self-driving vehicles has the potential to significantly impact many existing jobs. One of the largest and most obvious job categories that could see major losses is commercial drivers such as taxi drivers, ride-hailing drivers such as Uber and Lyft operators, truck drivers, and bus drivers. According to estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are over 3.5 million Americans employed as drivers of taxi cabs and ride-hailing vehicles, heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, and bus drivers. With self-driving vehicles able to operate without a human driver, the need for people to operate vehicles for a living would greatly diminish.

While self-driving trucks may still require drivers as attendants initially, the role would be more supervisory than operational driving the vehicle. Over time, the job functions of commercial drivers could be eliminated altogether as technology advances. This would result in massive job losses across these commercial driving industries that currently employ millions. Commercial driving also has many ancillary jobs associated with it such as truck stop employees, repair shop workers, weight station attendants, and others that could see reduced demand. The impact would ripple through local economies that rely heavily on commercial transportation.

In addition to commercial drivers, many automotive industry jobs could be affected. Mechanics focused on repairing and maintaining human-operated vehicles may see reduced demand for their services. As self-driving vehicles rely more on software, communication systems, and sensor technologies rather than mechanical components, the needs of vehicles will change. While new technical mechanic and repair jobs may emerge to service autonomous technologies, many existing mechanic specializations could become obsolete. Manufacturing line workers building vehicles may also face risks. As vehicles require fewer human-centric components and more computers and automation, production facilities would likely require fewer workers and adopt more industrial robotics.

Complementing the mechanical and manufacturing implications are a variety of jobs in supporting industries. From vendors that serve gas stations and truck stops to motels along highways that rely on commercial driver customers, many local businesses could take an economic hit from less vehicle traffic operated by humans. Roadside assistance workers like tow truck drivers may have lower call volumes as self-driving vehicles have fewer accidents and need less aid with tasks like jump starts. Even industries like motor vehicle parts suppliers, car washes, and parking facilities could see their customer base erode over time with autonomous vehicles that require less human oversight and operation.

Insurance and finance sector jobs linked to vehicle ownership may also see reallocation. Roles associated with insuring human drivers against issues like accidents and liabilities would logically decline if robot-driven cars cause drastically fewer crashes. Auto insurance models and underwriting specialists may need to shift focus. On the lending side, banks and finance companies that currently provide loans and financing packages for vehicle purchases may originate fewer new loans as shared mobility further reduces private car ownership. Related customer service and debt collection roles could consequently contract. Real estate could additionally feel impacts, as autonomous vehicles may reduce demand for non-residential developments centered around human transportation needs from gas stations to parking decks.

While the nature of many transportation planning, urban design, traffic engineering and government regulatory jobs would transition alongside autonomous vehicle integration, overall staffing levels in these fields may not necessarily decrease. Without intervention, job losses across whole sectors like commercial driving could number in the millions. Proactive workforce retraining programs and policy will be crucial to help displaced workers transition skills and find new occupations. There would surely be many new types of jobs created to develop, deploy and maintain autonomous vehicle systems, but the costs of lost jobs may unfortunately outweigh the benefits for some time without strategies to support workers through change. Widespread autonomous vehicle adoption holds potential economic gains, but also significant risks to employment that responsible leaders must address proactively to manage impacts. The changes will be massive, and managing this transition effectively will be one of the great challenges in developing self-driving technology for the benefit of society.